Skymet Weather predicts normal Monsoon for India in 2024

HYDERABAD: Skymet, India’s leading weather forecasting and agriculture risk solution company, predicts the upcoming monsoon to be 'normal,' with precipitation levels reaching approximately 102 percent (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6mm for the four-month period from June to September, according to its monsoon forecast for 2024.

The expected range for normal precipitation falls between 96-104 percent of the long period average (LPA). In its earlier forecast released on January 12, 2024, Skymet assessed the monsoon of 2024 to be 'normal' and maintained the same prediction.

According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, “El Nino is swiftly flipping over to La Nina. And, monsoon circulation inclines to be stronger during La Nina years. Also, transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon. However, monsoon season may start with risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino. The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phase”.

Besides ENSO, there are other factors influencing the monsoon. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has historically influenced the monsoon, often providing support during challenging times. The preliminary forecast of a positive IOD this season will complement La Nina, potentially improving monsoon prospects.

However, the start of the season is expected to be disrupted due to the quick transition from El Nino to La Nina. Also, the rainfall distribution is likely to be diverse and unequal throughout the season.

In terms of geographical prospects, Skymet expects sufficiently good rains in the South, West, and Northwest regions. The core monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall. The eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal will be at risk of deficit rainfall during the peak monsoon months of July and August. Northeast India is likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the first half of the season.

According to Skymet, monsoon probabilities for Climatology of monsoon circulation (JJAS) are

● 10% chance of excess ( seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)

● 20% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105% to 110% of LPA)

● 45% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)

● 15% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)

● 10% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 percent of LPA

*On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follow" June – 95% of LPA (LPA for June = 165.3mm)

● 50% chance of normal

● 20% chance of above normal

● 30% chance of below normal

July – 105% of LPA (LPA for July = 280.5mm)

● 60% chance of normal

● 20% chance of above normal

● 20% chance of below normal

August – 98% of LPA (LPA for August = 254.9mm)

● 50% chance of normal

● 20% chance of above normal

● 30% chance of below normal

September – 110% of LPA (LPA for September = 167.9mm)

● 60% chance of normal

● 20% chance of above normal

● 20% chance of below normal