Experts, pollsters unanimously predict BRS hat-trick in Telangana

NEW DELHI: India's prominent pollsters, journalists and academic institutions have reached a consensus that the Bharat Rashtra Samihi (BRS) is poised to form the Government in Telangana for the third consecutive term in the ensuing Assembly polls.

In a roundtable discussion called 'Politics in the South of the Vindhyas', organised by the Institute for Governance, Policies & Politics on Saturday, the participants unanimously concluded that the BRS was likely to secure victory in Telangana once again.

The participants included Prof. Sanjay Kumar, CSDS, New Delhi; Varghese K George, Resident Editor - New Delhi, The Hindu; Dr Ajay Gudhavarthy, associate professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi; Parsa Ventakeshwara Rao Jr., freelance journalist; Dr Sajjan Kumar, fellow, Prime Minister's Museum and Library, New Delhi; Pradeep Gupta, chairman & MD, Axis My India; Yashwant Deshmukh, director, CVoter; Ravi Reddy, resident editor (Telangana), The Hindu and Dr Manish Tiwari, Director, IGPP (Moderator).

While acknowledging that the Congress had been gaining some momentum, participants found it challenging to believe that it could bridge the 18 per cent vote share gap from the previous elections.

"This challenge is primarily due to internal issues within the Congress and the enduring popularity of Chief Minister Chandrashekar Rao (KCR)," the participants agreed.

They also highlighted that the people had expressed their appreciation for the welfare schemes and governance provided by the BRS Government during its last two terms, despite some gaps.

However, the experts noted that the opposition, particularly the Congress, had not effectively capitalised on these gaps and the potential anti-incumbency sentiment.

Discussing the current landscape of Telangana politics, Prof Sanjay Kumar from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) stated that while the Congress campaign had gained momentum, the BRS retained an advantage. He emphasised that the BRS's decade-long rule did not inherently lead to anti-incumbency sentiment and cited examples of Indian states where Chief Ministers served extended terms.

Prof. Kumar pointed out that in the last Assembly election, the BRS secured a 46 per cent vote share while the Congress received 28 per cent. "Historically, parties have struggled to make up an 18 per cent gap in electoral votes within five years," he said.

Pradeep Gupta, chairman and MD of Axis My India, added that a significant decrease in the BRS's vote share was unlikely, with just a minor shift in percentages between the BJP and the Congress being of interest.

Yashwant Deshmukh, director of C-Voter, noted that Telangana had shifted its focus from identity issues to governance and welfare concerns. He expressed doubts about the conviction of Congress leaders to harness any anti-incumbency wave for a victory.

Ravi Reddy, resident editor of The Hindu (Telangana), emphasised that anti-incumbency still played a significant role, particularly in Hyderabad and its surrounding constituencies.

The unanimous consensus among the experts was that the BJP remained a distant third in the race, and voters were unlikely to waste their votes on a party that appeared incapable of forming a Government, further diminishing the BJP's prospects.