Newstap Survey: BRS set to return to power in Telangana with 65-76 seats, Congress 32-41, BJP 3-4, 11 seats tight

HYDERABAD: The Newstap Telangana State survey report released in Hyderabad on Wednesday forecast a comfortable victory for the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) to register a hattrick.

The survey was based on a sample size of 1,19,000, conducted by professionals from November 16 to November 21. The survey was commenced on November 16, as the preceding day of November 15 was the last date for withdrawal of nominations of candidates and publication of the final list of contestants.

The research methodology applied was both qualitative and quantitative. The conclusions presented here are based on data analysis.

Survey findings:BRS:

The BRS is aiming for a hat-trick in the upcoming elections, yet it faces anti-incumbency sentiments within certain voter groups: the youth, students, and a section of those who did not benefit from the sanctioned schemes like double-bedroom housing, farm loan waivers, and unemployment financial assistance.

This setback could cause the BRS to drop significantly from 88 seats in the 2018 elections to 65 - 76 seats in 2023. Despite the Congress party’s efforts to shape negative narratives about the BRS, which are being served to voters as incomplete information, the only anti-BRS voter bloc is considering other options.

However, overall, the BRS is expected to form the government with over 70 seats.

Congress:

The Congress had never held the second position There's a sense of confusion among people regarding the leadership within the Congress, particularly concerning who would become the Chief Minister, just in case it manages to secure the magic figure, according to the survey.

People believe that a Congress-led government would be unstable due to the lack of clear leadership in the state, potentially leading most MLAs to defect to a more stable political party.

According to the survey, the Congress has seen a significant increase in both vote share and seats but has fallen short of securing the magic figure. The survey findings indicate that people perceive their flagship '6-Guarantees' as an upgraded version of the BRS schemes currently in place, raising concerns that choosing the Congress might pose a risk. Their track record and the unstable government situation in Karnataka further discouraged support for the Congress, as people are not confident about their promises.

BJP:

Although the BJP tried to pose as the main challenger with a formidable second position in Telangana until the Karnataka elections, it has now slipped to a position, wherein it might trail behind even the AIMIM. The BJP secured victories in Dubbaka, and Huzurabad in by-elections, and Goshamahal through general elections. Additionally, Gadwal was added to their wins due to Bandla Krishna Mohan Reddy's disqualification after a more than 4.5-year term. However, the confusion over this has yet to be resolved.

This development diluted the leadership of DK Aruna in the constituency. Further, MLA Rathod Bapu Rao switched allegiance from BRS to BJP in 2023.

Out of these five Assembly constituencies, only Goshamahal is expected to be retained in the 2023 elections, alongside Bodhan and Nizamabad Urban. Also, the BJP has significantly increased its vote share compared to previous elections. It is also observed that it is a neck-and-neck fight between the BRS and the BJP, and the INC is in the third position in those constituencies.

AIMIM:

The AIMIM has primarily been confined to the Hyderabad parliament constituency for a considerable period. Their strongholds include Malakpet, Nampally, Karwan, Charminar, Chandrayangutta, Yakutpura, and Bahadurpura. However, in the upcoming elections, the survey observed that the AIMIM might lose Nampally to the Congress due to the strength of the latter’s candidate, Mohammed Feroz Khan. Khan has been contesting since 2009, trying his luck with the PRP, the TDP, and the Congress in the respective elections ever since the formation of the Nampally Assembly Constituency.

BSP:

The BSP holds approximately 1% of the vote bank across several Assembly Constituencies. However, RS Praveen Kumar, a retired IPS officer contesting from the Sirpur Assembly Constituency, has garnered significant attention, increasing the likelihood of securing the seat in the upcoming election.

CPI:

The CPI is only contesting Kothagudem with the Congress party’s support, where it is enjoying an edge.

Tight:

Tight seats can go either way and some are in favour of the BRS and some in favour of the Congress.

The tight seats are: Mancherial, Nirmal, Balkonda, Narayankhed, Malkajgiri, Gadwal, Kalwakurthy, Shadnagar, Munigode, Mulugu, and Khammam.

Conclusively, the survey indicated that the BRS would form the government for a consecutive third term in Telangana.