Telangana Assembly Polls 2023: Surveys forecast clean sweep for BRS, on track to register a hattrick

HYDERABAD: Two prominent study reports and an opinion poll conducted in Telangana concluded that the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is still the people’s favourite and is on its way to registering a victory for the third time.

NewsTAP has looked at the reports of the latest Political Reconnaissance Study by Mission Chanakya, a reputed political research and analysis agency, Facts Marketing and Research Services opinion poll, and the India TV survey to ascertain the trends, the mood of the people and the winning and losing sides in the epic political battle.

Mission Chanakya:

Mission Chanakya study forecasted a victory for the BRS with 73 plus 3 seats, relegating the Congress to second position with 23 plus 2 seats, the BJP with 7 plus 2 seats, the AIMIM (All India Majlis e Ittehadul Muslimeen)with 7 seats, and others with 2 seats.

The latest Political Reconnaissance Study Report furnished by Mission Chanakya on Sunday said that BRS would lead with a promising 44.62 percent. The Congress scored 32.71 percent, slightly improving from the earlier survey result of 28.19 percent. On the other hand, the BJP would garner a share of 17.6 percent, a dip from 22.7 percent indicating a serious dent in the share of votes. Others including the AIMIM had a share of 5.07 votes.

Women voters behind the BRS

The BRS seemed to be a huge favourite among the women voters with 50.32 percent of them indicating their support. This was a significant factor that decided the BRS's victory when we compared the support to BRS from male voters which stood at 38.91 percent.

The Congress had a 31.65 percent share of women’s vote men stood at 33.76 percent. The BJP secured 15.05 percent of women's votes and 20.14 percent of men's votes.

Young preferred the BRS

A look at the age groups and their preferences, the BRS stood first among the young voters in the age group of 18-25. A notable aspect was that the preference increased with age.

Among the voters aged 18-25, 38.01 percent showed an inclination toward the BRS government. Among the age groups, 41.3 percent of voters aged 26-35 years, 43.02 percent of voters aged 36-45, 46.72 percent of voters aged 46-55, and 48.01 percent of voters aged 56-65, and 50.64 percent for those aged over 65 years supported the BRS.

Community wise preference

BRS was preferred by 45.97 percent of BCs (Backward Classes), 41.2 percent of OCs (Open Category), 43.17 percent of SCs (Scheduled Castes), 44.45 percent of STs (Scheduled Tribes), and 48.31 percent of minorities.

The Congress was preferred by 26.7 percent of BCs, 29.62 percent of OCs, 33.67 percent of SCs, 37.16 percent of STs, and 36.41 percent of minorities.

The BJP was preferred by 24.6 percent of BCs, 24.89 percent of OCs, 16.6 percent of SCs, 16.41 percent of STs, and a mere 5.52 percent of minorities.

The weak and differently-abled preferred the BRS

The appeal of the BRS among a cross-section of voters based on occupation also put the BRS on the top with 52.13 percent of Aasara pensioners, 50 percent of homemakers, academic institutions, and differently-abled individuals supporting the BRS.

48.52 percent of farmers, 44.14 percent, and 38.95 percent of laborers and private employees supported the BRS.

The study revealed that the BRS had a hold on 14 out of the 17 Loksabha constituencies in the State. The Congress has its hold in the Peddapalli, Nalgonda and Khammam constituencies.

Facts Marketing Research Services

The Survey was done through a structured questionnaire random sampling method from October 12 to October 20.

The survey predicted a thumping victory for the BRS with 70-76 seats, the Congress with 24-30 seats, the BJP with 6-10 seats, AIMIM with 7-8 seats and others with 1.

The vote share according to the survey was: BRS 42.5 percent, Congress 33.1 percent, BJP 16 .3 percent, AIMIM 2.9 percent, CPI and CPM 0.9 percent, BSP 2.4 percent and undecided 1.9 percent.

The study also looked into two other parameters the performance of the Chief Minister and also Government’s performance.

While 36.9 percent of the voters surveyed said that the performance of KCR was good, 37.2 percent said average, 24.3 percent said it was bad and 1.6 percent said that they were not sure of it. When it came to State Government’s performance 31.9 percent said it was good, 38.7 percent said it was average, 27.3 percent said it was bad and the remaining were undecided.

India Today

The India Today survey also forecast a decisive victory for the BRS. The TV said that if elections were held right away in Telangana, the BRS would win 70 seats a loss of 18 seats, the BJP would win 7 a gain of 6 seats, the Congress would win 34, a gain of 15 seats, AIMIM would win 7 and others only 1, a loss of 3 seats.