Is BJP ready to fall for another use-and-throw trick of Naidu; or is it mutual this time?

AMARAVATHI: The Bharatiya Janata Party seems to have softened its stand on Telugu Desam Party (TDP) supremo N Chandrababu Naidu.

Naidu is most likely meet the BJP top leadership, especially Home Minister Amit Shah, and crack a deal with him to join the NDA.

After falling apart with the BJP in 2018, Naidu cleverly “exported” his MPs in the Upper House into the BJP so that their good offices could come in handy at an appropriate time. They indeed did now. It’s CM Ramesh and Sujana Chowdary who did the background operation of brokering peace for the BJP to bury the hatchet with the TDP, if at all. However, whether the efforts for an alliance will bear fruit will be clear in a few days. Naidu is going to Delhi on Wednesday, February 7.

Jana Sena president Pawan Kalyan’s ongoing partnership with NDA is being used by the TDP to pull strings on its behalf.

What’s the trade-off? Naidu senses a huge comeback of the BJP in 2024 Elections for a renewed third term. In such case, he thinks rubbing shoulders with the BJP would be of advantage for him. However, the BJP, which is trying to make inroads into South Indian states, may demand a large number of Lok Sabha seats. Speculation is rife that it may ask for at least six seats in seat sharing. Will Naidu settle for this if the two parties join hands is something that needs to be deciphered yet. That the TDP is already in an alliance with Jana Sena which is asking for five Lok Sabha seats or at least three is a point that needs to be factored in.

Deal or not, here’s the background of the love-hate relationship of Naidu and the BJP.

• The BJP seems to have been prepared for the use-and-throw policy of Naidu
• ⁠In 1998, Naidu did everything to appease the BJP to get into the NDA post election. The elevation of GMC Balayogi as the Speaker of Lok Sabha was the tradeoff.
• ⁠In 1999, they let him in and made him NDA convener, another pivotal position. He stayed on in alliance until 2004 election results.
• It’s in this period, Godhra incident happened. Vajpayee wanted Modi to quit. Advani prevailed. Modi continued.
• Chandrababu wanted Modi to be thrown out.
• ⁠He had announced that he would not allow Modi to step into Hyderabad.
• After 2004 debacle, Naidu walked out of the NDA blaming it on the BJP and announced that he would never align with the BJP, never again.
• ⁠On the eve of AP bifurcation and formation of Telangana, Modi appealed to the TDP from Lal Bahadur Stadium Public Meeting in 2013 that the TDP should join hands with the BJP.
• ⁠By then, Naidu was the only hope as the BJP and Modi's leadership did not gain currency among political parties. Naidu's support became the fitst credible endorsement for Modi's leadership as the Prime Ministerial nominee among other political parties.
• As Modi's popularity peaked, Naidu rode on this to win AP elections with a slender difference in vote share in 2014.
• Actor-turned-politician and Jana Sena president Pawan Kalyan acted as passive partner and catalyst for the victory, as he did not enter the electoral fray but campaigned for Naidu.
• ⁠In 2018, Naidu broke ranks and walked out of the NDA trusting the Congress would be helpful to him in future. He directly joined hands with Congress and contested the 2018 Assembly polls in Telangana by forming a Maha Kutami (grand alliance) with the deadly combination of Congress-TDP-Communists, but failed to crack the code.
• ⁠But he dumped the Congress in the dustbin in 2019 Assembly elections in AP as the Congress was a political pariah there and it had paid a heavy price for dividing Andhra Pradesh which denizens of AP strongly opposed.
• ⁠After his 2019 rout, again Naidu began waving the white flag to the BJP and began waxing eloquent on Modi openly.
• ⁠An alliance is the need of the hour for the TDP. Actually, a question of survival indeed. Precisely for this reason, Chandrababu Naidu “maintained” cordial relations with Pawan Kalyan and fortified that bond and used him for bridging the gap with the BJP.
• Now that Home Minister Amit Shah, on whose convoy the TDP cadres pelted stones in Tirupati, again called Naidu for talks in Delhi.
• Most likely the alliance may work as Naidu is desperate and BJP wants a bigger pie in MP seats.
• Though the BJP is not averse to YS Jagan as he remained a trusted associate, albeit from an arm’s distance, he made it clear beyond confusion that he would never join the NDA. For, his constituency of electors is totally different from that of the BJP and he cannot displease that large section of electorate.
• For BJP, it’s not even a calculated risk in Andhra Pradesh because either they gain some or there would be no change in the scenario as far as its positioning is concerned.
• This alliance will be a gamble worth playing for the BJP. For the TDP, this will act as that necessary push before it rolls.
• ⁠If Naidu wins, it will again be a matter of time before he dumps the ally like the proverbial hot potato.
• ⁠Despite their serious efforts to stay glued to Naidu, one would understand the fate of Communists in Andhra Pradesh.