El Nino effect: Bountiful rain, scorching sun in 2024, say experts

HYDERABAD: Weather experts have anticipate that India will receive favorable rainfall during this year's monsoon season, as El Nino conditions are expected to set in from June to August. Additionally, there is a likelihood of these conditions weakening and transitioning to La Nino by August, potentially increasing rainfall further.

The Indian monsoon of 2023 saw below-average rainfall of 820 mm, attributed to the strengthening El Nino, compared to the long-term average of 868.6 mm. The World Meteorological Organization suggests that if El Nino persists through the first half of 2024, temperatures could surpass those of 2023. However, if La Nina develops, 2024 may not be warmer than 2023.

Mahesh Palawat, Vice-President of Skymet, said, "Yes, we think that El Nino will start devolving gradually. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions will develop by March and April. By the second half of the monsoon, LaNino may start evolving, leading to an increase in monsoon rains in the second half of the monsoon. Monsoon 2024 may be much better than 2023. We think it is normal and anywhere between 96 and 104 percent of the long-period average (LPA). As of now, this is the most probable forecast, and even summers may be much warmer this year due to El Nino."

T Balaji, Telangana Weatherman, said, "This year appears to be interesting due to El Nino to La Nino. There will undoubtedly be strong summers, but it appears that the monsoon will be more interesting. This year's rainfall pattern is expected to be similar to those of 2019, 2016, and 2020. Late monsoon rains from August to October will be beneficial this season. From March to May 2024, this summer will follow the same trend as in 2007, 2019, and 2020. The forthcoming heatwaves in March and April are expected to be hotter than the 2021-23 summer. North East Telangana may see 47-49°C during peak summer (May), while Hyderabad may experience 43-45°C."